Wellingtonians - There's No Market Crystal Ball... But There is... a Graph!

People sometimes ask how the market is?  It’s often when they’re pondering or romanticising a personal change…but wondering if the market is good for it…two different things really.   

Let’s deal with the market question quickly then get to the more important question.

The Market

The picture below (yes it’s a graph... but the shape is key here) sums up the last 4 years of the market visually quite well price-wise – a rollercoaster ‘upleg’ in 2021, peaking late 2021, followed by the rollercoaster ‘downleg’ over 2022 and into 2023 landing with a more subdued to normal market, now lacking the ‘extremes’.

Markets move in cycles and the recent ‘market boom then bust’ period, as the lingo goes, came out of the government’s monetary stimulus and Reserve Bank’s loose monetary policy in managing the pandemic, in hindsight kept too loose for too long leading to high inflation, then the contraction phase following to fight inflation back down. 

The good news is inflation is now at 3.3% - just outside the 1-3% target range - not bad given it peaked at 7.3% in 2022.  Some banks have started easing their interest rates slightly, and it’s anticipated the Reserve Bank will begin lowering the Official Cash Rate (OCR) later this year which will open the door to a cycle of interest rate cuts. 

Sellers Now

In real estate, there’s what you can’t control – the Market. Then there’s what you can control – your Property Presentation, Promotion, Price (the 3-P’s) and your Representation (how good your agent is at the job). It’s this second part that where success is won or lost and which has the most opportunity for sellers. 

Each month sellers are selling and buyers are buying - apparently 426 in Wellington in June.  July figures aren’t out yet.

The Right Question

Now, with the market box ticked – it’s fine.  Let’s get to the real questions. 

I’m in and out of people’s living rooms each week, hearing about goals, situations and problems and giving real estate advice to help.   It’s a privilege and also a unique window into a lot of situations in life, that many experience.

15 years into this, after so many of these conversations, I’ve noticed that some people are very intentional, they’re taking time to think about different scenarios, possibilities and options for their lives and have a plan….they’re moving forward.  Whereas some others seem a bit stuck,   they’re thinking of a change but are wondering about the market and the perfect time which seems to never arrive. 

Having seen some go onto to make great changes and take the plunge and others for want of a better word a bit paralysed by uncertainty and fear, I’ve come to the conclusion that the more important question than trying to second guess the market are:

• ‘Are you wanting to make a change’?

• ‘What would your life be like after making this change?’ and

• ‘How long do you want to put these benefits off for and what are the non-financial costs or losses for each year that you do’?

We all know the saying – ‘you only live once’ – and how long that is for is..well uncertain.  The seller’s we’ve helped to move forward are so excited when the idea becomes a reality. 

Do you want to be in another location?  Would a cheaper property free up capital to travel or go part-time?  Are the stairs or is maintenance getting too much?  ‘Do you need something bigger for teenagers or your sanity?, ‘Would you like to buy an Investment for the future?’ or ‘Is it time to cash out of your investment property and the dramas of it?’ The questions and opportunities are near limitless. 

Whatever the situation if you want to chat about the market and strategies to realize your personal goals get in touch.  Start with an updated opinion of value for your property and ask questions.  No fuss, no sales pitch, just service (call 027 518 0008 or email leonieandsteve@harcourts.co.nz).